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When Will Social Gaming Jump the Shark?

The debut of Zynga latest creation, "FrontierVille", on Facebook Wednesday was met with glee from the hundreds of millions of users of these social games - along with some speculation as to whether it will bring back the tens of millions of people who have dropped out of FarmVille in recent months.

There is every indication it will: FrontierVille has the same addictive elements as its predecessor, plus more interactive features and activities. The larger question is whether social gaming is a fad that is showing signs of peaking.

On the Plus Side

"FarmVille" is notable in that it has attracted a lot of people who weren't active Internet users, Michael Pachter, managing director of equity research for Wedbush Securities, told TechNewsWorld. "It was the social hooks that grabbed people - women especially - to play the game, even if they weren't gamers or techies."  Related activities - such as purchases of virtual goods - also show robust growth. A new study by Frank N. Magid Associates, and PlaySpan. found that 13% of the overall population surveyed reported that they had bought virtual goods in the last 12 months, with the mean of digital good purchase up 14% from $87 in 2009 to $99 in 2010. The median of digital goods purchase is $50 in 2010 - a 67% improvement from $30 in 2009.

Some Concerns

But there are hints that social gaming may have peaked. Concerns are growing that users will become fatigued from constantly being asked to buy additional in-game items. Also, “economic factors could affect the future of social gaming, and consumer behavior remains an unknown,” says Paul Verna, eMarketer senior analyst and author of the new report, "Social Gaming: Virtual Crops Yield Real Profits." (via eMarketer).  “Playing addictive games that simulate farms, restaurants or mob families could be a long-term business proposition, but it could also be the ultimate fad,” he said. “If interest in these types of activities evaporates as quickly as it materialized, the social gaming industry could experience the same plunge as happened with virtual worlds.”

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