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What Would Portend a Facebook Collapse? Not This


Social Network In-Crowd

Some pretty simplistic blog posts making the rounds have suggested that a small poll done on teens regarding their favorite social sites may suggest Facebook could start to pull a MySpace, plummeting from absolute attention dominance among the young set and into something close to oblivion for its lack of moving along with the times.

Looking at the actual data, though, shows that Facebook remains even more popular with the high schoolers than it does with their elders, yet it does show that Tumblr has begun to have an even bigger impact on the group.

The death spiral of MySpace was predicted by more than a few in the online media industry because certain factors made it difficult to see how MySpace could remain a dominant traffic generator:

  • It dealt largely with one topic (music)
  • It dealt largely with one demographic group (youth)
  • Simultaneously, internet traffic growth rates were shifting from youth to the older
  • Its development cycle for new features and products was slower than the average internet firm
  • Ad performance on the site was lower than average, and there did not appear to be an effort in place to increase it

Facebook's profile today looks quite a bit different than this, not least because of its increasingly diverse set of ad revenue streams that appear to be invading multiple channels.

But the cool factor? Yes, that's something that is difficult to own for too terribly long a period of time. There is a certain lock-in that a well-used social network provides, as all a users' friends or associates are unlikely to move to a new platform all at once.

But if it were to happen, it would likely happen among the youth first, killing the incumbent sense of coolness, and with that audience not yet being beholden to a social network lock-in regime.

MarketingVOX went to the same data source this morning to poll similar respondents as to the likelihood that Tumblr could really be a substitute among the teens for Facebook. Results should be back shortly. Put your email in the box below to subscribe and get the updates.

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