MarketingProfs: Mobile Marketing ñ R U up 4 it?

A good article packed with decent advice, although the author implies that the US wireless marketing industry is far more backward that it actually is. The Wireless Advertising Association first opened in the US back in May 2000, 6 month before its European counterpart.

For those of you really interested in this area, click MORE to read what is probably the most influencial article ever written on subject of wireless marketing. First published back in June 2001, its message was so insightful that it pretty much shaped everything that followed

The Mystical World of Wireless Marketing

By Robert Loch

Tuesday June 12, 2001

Yesterday I popped down to my local market and bought a Trout. I then wrapped it in a plastic bag, bunged it in an envelope and posted it off to the CEO of a fashion retailer.

Why, because that morning my mobile announced an offer for a 'sexy bikini.' I did not want that mail, so I thought that I would return the favour.

OK, I'm am not being entirely honest, but that is what I felt like doing. I maybe of the Michael Douglas in 'Falling Down' persuasion, but this type of spam is going to send balanced people insane.

As far as I am concerned, 'just leave me in peace.'

However, do not underestimate the potential for this medium. Wireless Advertising will be worth $5 billion and will account for 10% of the overall marketing spend by 2004. (Felix Research.) I asked my cat.

Well I might as well have, research companies don't appear to have any real idea. Ovum's and Jupiter's 2005 wireless advertising revenue predictions differ by more than $15 billion, ($16 billion and $700 million respectively.)

The reality is that the accuracy of these figures is highly depended on the level of future wireless penetration, which at this point is far from clear. Cahners In-Stat group recently stated that the worldwide number of M-Commerce users will rise from under 50 million at the end of 2001 to just below 600 million by 2005. Can we trust any of these numbers given the complex variables that they rely on?

If you take Internet usage, SMS, Internet Advertising, anything, these pundit have often been way out. For that I don't blame them, it is a hard job. But trying to forecast the potential for wireless marketing at this point in time has to be almost pointless. If someone wants a prediction, hand me the cash and I'll make something up.

SkyGo completed a study on the 31 January 2001 into wireless advertising and concluded that:

'Wireless Marketing Study demonstrates wireless "push" advertising is perceived as value-added service, generating high response rates, fostering brand awareness and driving consumers to act.'

I am almost at a loss as to what to say about this. Yes the study was reasonably in depth. Yes it was professionally conducted. Yes I am sure that it is of some value, BUT PLEASE we are talking about a sample of 1000 consumer from one town in Colorado. They tout it as 'proof' of the viability of the medium, which it clearly is not. You can not hand people a new toy, create an artificial environment, and then conclude that this will have a direct relationship to future user patterns.

So what is going to happen?

Well I ran a few thoughts past Big foot, who rode into town last night on a unicorn. We discussed the issue from an ambitious perspective that assumed that the technology would eventually work and that the data transfers rate would exceed that of an injured snail. Between us we can confidently inform you of the following:

1. Spam must be killed at source. Made illegal, hung, draw and quarter all offenders. It could destroy any marketing potential for this medium.

2. Very advanced mail filtering systems must be introduced.

3. On top of that wireless service providers should follow the NTT DoCoMo example and find ways to give users the power to bar unwanted communication.

4. Forget permission marketing, think request marketing. Opt-in/Opt-out, we need to go further. With something this personal one should only send EXACT marketing messages about SPECIFICALLY requested products and services.

5. Write out 100 times, 'Users will determine how this medium develops.' Learn from the crazy way that SMS exploded in Europe. Watch Japan carefully and keep an eye on teenage user behaviour.

6. We are not going to wander past Star Bucks and be beeped with an offer of 'a Latte at 20% off.' Tragically, although every part of my being is repelled by the idea, it may actually happen. Let us pray that this form of marketing dies off quickly.

7. Location based marketing under a different guise may be of value. Sending out adverts to consumer in one district, one town or one city could be effective, could work, will happen.

8. Mix that with socio-economic factors and your targeting is getting good. If users are persuaded to participate positively, wireless could become a seriously accurate marketing medium.

9. In all likelihood the majority will accept adverts and other marketing schemes on their mobile. Fight it if you wish, but you'll be bribed into it by lower call/data transfer charges and other incentives.

10. Time based marketing will rock, whilst blatantly robbing the easily persuaded. Impulse buyers beware, all kinds of time limited offer will be throw at you. Forget the 'for this week only' special offer, here comes 'for this day/hour only.' Selling off excess supply, like event tickets, late flights etc., will have a life on this channel.

11. Mobile money will be a serious reality, either/and through M-wallets or by debiting your mobile phone account. However there are a number of security issue that will have to be resolved before this becomes wide spread.

12. Coupons/tokens. I dread to think how confusing this could get. Your phone will be armed with an endless supply of discount chips. If request marketing works, this may add value to your life, if not it may drive you mad.

13. Small gift messages. This will be a system where you can send someone a mobile gift, for instance a drink token that is redeamable at your local bar. A token plus the message 'heyhunwozthkofuavadrkonme.' Or translated 'hey honey I was thinking of you, have a drink on me.' Might happen? Of course it will. At last we have found a proper use for this technology.

14. If companies want to make proper money through this medium they should have some connection to the call/data transfer payment. Whatever other revenue streams they target, it is critical to get something from the mobile operator.

15. Wireless will be almost as much fun as the Internet era. Don't worry we will see an equal amount of incompetence. All the lessons learnt from then will likely be forgotten.

Personally I believe that wireless marketing will work but only if it is done very carefully. I am happy to be informed about certain product offers, certain special deals and certain cheap tickets. Feel free to send me discount coupons, but make sure they are highly relevant to my life. Spam me however, and I will release the four horses of the apocalypse upon you. It is personal, it is my space, I will decide what enters it.

So there you go. Is anything that is written above accurate? Who knows? However, I can assure you that this article is as meaningful or meaningless as most that have been written on this subject. For those attempting to predict the future of wireless advertising it is worth remembering that there is a finite amount of advertising revenue available, spanning many mediums. For wireless to grap a substantial share it has to prove its value in a highly competitive arena. As of yet we have very limitted adoption and the technology is only beginning to become adequate, making it impossible to gage its level of viable. We won't know its marketing potential until such a time when the infrastructure is properly in place and users start to integrate it into their lives. As things stand we are all just guessing.