Tough to resist
that winning grin

Eight of the 10 demographic segments most likely to contribute to a US presidential campaign — including the most affluent, influential and well-educated voters — made most of their contributions to Democratic candidates in the first half of '07, according to a recent Nielsen analysis, writes MarketingCharts.

That's up from four of the top 10 segments during the same period in 2003; moreover, of the two segments that donated a majority of their money to Republican candidates — Country Squires and Second City Elite — are now trending Democratic.

Data for this Nielsen analysis was obtained from FEC.gov and includes all individual donations to Presidential Primary candidates prior to June 2007. The data was coded using Nielsen's PRIZM NE segmentation system* at the ZIP code level.

"Households in these top 10 donor segments are the financial engines for political campaigns, because they are over four times more likely to contribute than the average household," said Mike Mancini, Vice President Data Product Management for Claritas, the Nielsen Company's marketing information provider that pioneered the segmentation system.

"However, even the rest of the country's more modest contributors with less disposable income (who represent 86 percent of potential voters, but only 35 percent of total contributions), are also shifting their support from the Republicans to the Democrats."

The study showed that 64 percent of the donors in the top 10 donor segments gave to Democratic candidates compared to 36 percent for Republican candidates. The numbers were also similar for donations, with Democratic candidates receiving 62 percent of the donated dollars and Republicans receiving 38 percent.

Nationally, Democrats are out-raising Republicans, capturing nearly 60 percent of all donated dollars.

This capture rate is even more acute in urban segments, where Democrats average closer to 70 percent across most segments. Suburbia is more varied, from a high near 70 percent to a low of 38 percent, but an overall average capture rate of 55 percent for Democrats:

In addition, the rural heartland and small town America has lost its strong tilt toward Republican contributions of years past with Democratic and Republican candidates now obtaining about a 50/50 split across the group's segments.

The upper- and middle-class of rural America still lean Republican in terms of donors and dollars given, while the lower-income segments favor Democratic candidates.

Though the percentage split between Republican and Democratic donors has remained relatively flat since the last election, dollar donations for '08 have tilted toward the Democratic side. In key segments like Movers & Shakers, Urban Achievers, and Upper Crust, there are double-digit increases in funding from the Republicans in 2004 to the Democrats in 2008.

About frontrunner candidates, the analysis revealed the following:

• Rudy Giuliani received 14 percent of all donations (35 percent of donations to Republicans). He is attracting more support from urban and metro areas and looks to do better with a mix of both liberal and conservative segments including Close-in Couples (17 percent overall; 53 percent share of donors among Republicans), Cosmopolitans (15 percent overall; 48 percent of Republicans), and Second City Elite (20 percent overall; 39 percent of Republicans).
• Mitt Romney received 14 percent of all donations (36 percent of donations to Republicans). He has success in suburban areas with more traditional lifestyle segments that include Domestic Duos (35 percent overall; 62 percent of Republicans), Kids & Cul-de-Sacs (30 percent overall, 58 percent of Republicans) and White Picket Fences (34 percent overall, 56 percent of Republicans).
• Hillary Clinton received 21 percent of all donations (35 percent of donations to Democrats). She draws contributors from Family Life segments, including Suburban Pioneers (48 percent overall; and 68 percent of Democrats), Low-Rise Living (34 percent overall; 51 percent of Democrats), Beltway Boomers (22 percent overall; and 46 percent of Democrats), which are households with a high percentage of children.
• Barak Obama received 20 percent of all donations (33 percent of donations to Democrats). He does well with a number of blue-collar and mid-scale segments including Blue-Chip Blues (24 percent overall; 45 percent of Democrats), City Roots (28 percent overall; 40 percent of Democrats) as well as younger segments like Bohemian Mix and Urban Achievers (approximately 29 percent overall; 39 percent of Democrats, each) and Young Digerati (26 percent overall; 37 percent of Democrats).

*PRIZM NE classifies 66 segments (www.mybestsegments.com) of the US population based on various socio-economic data, such as income, age, occupation, education and household composition, as well as lifestyle attributes.

For descriptions of top 10 voter segments, see the MarketingCharts write-up.