Apple plans to unveil its iMessage service on Wednesday as part of its updated iOS 5 - a development that could shake up the telecom industry, perhaps profoundly, if consumers become accustomed to free texting.
With it, iPhone and iPad users can send messages with text, photos and video to other iPhone and iPad users over a Wi-Fi or cellular data connection.
For carriers, the stakes are significant, the New York Times recently pointed out, given the huge margins they realize from texting. As far as has been reported, iMessage only works on iOS devices, including the iPod Touch. This group accounts for only 5% of texting traffic.
But the possibility that Apple makes iMessage open to other platforms must be considered, the NYT said. Once that happens, consumers are unlikely to continuing paying for text services.
Other Players
Other vendors appear to be thinking along these lines. Microsoft's acquisition of Skype and GroupMe is likely to deliver such an application. Google is said to be developing a text-like free service that goes beyond Google Talk and other IM apps, Electronista says.
A Slowdown in Texting
These new entrants are coming to market as signs suggest that texting has reached a maturation point. A recent survey by Pew Internet found that both text messaging and phone calling on cell phones have leveled off for the adult population as a whole.
Text messaging users send or receive an average of 41.5 messages on a typical day, with the median user sending or receiving 10 texts daily – both figures are largely unchanged from what was reported in 2010. Similarly, cell owners make or receive an average of 12 calls on their cells per day, which is unchanged from 2010.
One explanation, offered to Wired News by Aaron Smith, author of the Pew study, is that a lot of these people have found their natural level of texting. "For those already texting a lot (some users text upwards of 3,000 messages a month), there’s only so much you can increase from there."
Not that Pew’s figures augur the demise of texting. In July 2011, 70% of US mobile subscribers used text messaging on their mobile device, according to comScore Mobile Metrix data.
