MediaPost reports that a beaten-down network TV upfront may portend not just a cyclical downturn in marketing spend or TV ad rates, but rather a fundamental shift in marketing priorities away from television generally. While it has long been recognized among marketers that TV has lost a great deal of its relative efficiency, the market hasn't - perhaps until now - actually turned to have its prices reflect that generally accepted principle. Where is it going? Agency execs are saying its going a little bit everywhere, but mostly to new online spending.

One agency head said that the poor performance of the networks most recent upfront sale comes in the face of budget increases to marketing generally. "What's interesting, is my clients budgets aren't down," said Carat CEO David Verklin. "They're up. TV budgets are down."

MediaPost's survey of agency execs showed that the buyers anticipate the upfront network buys to total as little as $9 billion, a slight reduction over last year's $9.2 billion. The new pecking order for sales stiffness will be CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, WB and UPN.